National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Evanking Chiu

19th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

4.4

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pang Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sunny Yu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs FUNG CC (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ian Chan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Roscar Tang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.26
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.20
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

FUNG CC

37th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rocky Cheung (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jerry Au (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Isaac Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.78
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

PH Chung

10th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ken Wu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ray lam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.97

Jackie wong

16th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Howard Shih (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jerry Au (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Colin Li (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Tsz Lung Wu

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Liu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Pang Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Kelvin Wong

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs WAI KIT LO (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chi Hoi Tsoi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Draw	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Jammy Cheng

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chan Lion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sunny Yu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.03
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Ashley Chiu

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Howard Shih (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (0.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.