Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 5-1-0
100%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
4.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Pang Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sunny Yu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs FUNG CC (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Ian Chan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
Round 12: Loss vs Roscar Tang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
37th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rocky Cheung (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jerry Au (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Isaac Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
10th • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ken Wu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ray lam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
75:25
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
16th • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Howard Shih (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jerry Au (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Round 10: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Colin Li (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Isaac Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Loss vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Liu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35
Round 10: Loss vs Pang Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-1
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs WAI KIT LO (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chi Hoi Tsoi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Draw |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Round 2: Win vs Chan Lion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sunny Yu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-0-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
0.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Howard Shih (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
100% (1/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (0.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
0.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.