National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Henry Lau

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chung Ho Kong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs ka chun chan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kelvin Law (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Anthony Liu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Gordon Chan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs erwin leung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs AZCEX DECADE (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs sor sum (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Jerry Au

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lk Sing (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs FUNG CC (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Lok Chan

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Allen Lau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chun On Anson Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Thomas Li

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cho Chiu Sit (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.