Jarl Vetreiði at National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region
Jarl Vetreiði
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
31st • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Henry Lau (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36
Round 12: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.