Arakni, Marionette
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs See Atlantis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rudy Ar (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Clement Cheng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cho Chiu Sit (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tsz Lung Wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Roscar Tang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Alex Lo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
12th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
4.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kyle WKL (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ray lam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Pang Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
36th • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Liu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chun sir (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rudy Ar (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
Round 10: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gordon Chan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacky Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ashley Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Isaac Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs MICKEY LOI (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ian Chan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Lo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.