Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Yau

3rd • 6-2-0

12%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

6.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roscar Tang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.40
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.84
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.59
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.66
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.75
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Cheuk Lun Tsang

30th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cho Chiu Sit (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs FUNG CC (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alex Lo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Elvis Ho (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.12
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.03
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Wayne Tsui

34th • 3-2-1

17%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Lo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Draw vs Elvis Ho (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Draw	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Rudy Ar

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chun sir (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.