National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Yau

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

5.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roscar Tang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.11
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.73
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.28
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.38
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Cheuk Lun Tsang

30th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cho Chiu Sit (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs FUNG CC (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alex Lo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Elvis Ho (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.98
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Wayne Tsui

34th • 3-2-1

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Lo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Draw vs Elvis Ho (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Rudy Ar

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chun sir (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.85

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.