National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Shing Tsang

5th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hung Aaa_Man (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Wu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kyrios Mak (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.41
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.62
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.01
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.28
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Colin Li

14th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

5.5

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs AZCEX DECADE (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacky Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.18
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.06

Alex Lo

35th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs sor sum (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Man Kit (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs WAI KIT LO (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Pang Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Isaac Lee

39th • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hochun Lai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Howard Shih (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs FUNG CC (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Teddy Tai

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs BILLY CHAN (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chung Ho Kong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Isaac Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Colin Li (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hochun Lai

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Kyle WKL

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Roscar Tang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Chau (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.45

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.