National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ian Chan

21st • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Chan (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Man Kit (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Dennis Yip

29th • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Colin Li (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chan Lion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs See Atlantis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ian Chan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.14
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chun On Anson Wong

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs BILLY CHAN (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lok Chan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Chi Hoi Tsoi

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elvis Ho (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kelvin Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.