Dash I/O at National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region
Dash I/O
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lok Chan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.