Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
Round 1: Win vs Kyle WKL (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Liu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Round 10: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Kyrios Mak (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Hung Aaa_Man (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
0% (0/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
5.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.