Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ania Grudnowska

19th • 6-0-0

83%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

5.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Łukasz Kolibaj (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Franciszek Sapikowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Paweł Sosnowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Wojciech Hudziak (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.68
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.67
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.43

Lukasz Bigos

21st • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 46:54

95:5

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 93:7

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michał Zalejski (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.04
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Michał Sierszulski

29th • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michal Michalowski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michał Biernacki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pawel Kosminski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Marcin Bugara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.91

Dawid Dominiak

37th • 1-5-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dominik Kuszneruk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Maciej Laskowski

dropped • 3-0-0

33%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marek Małecki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mateusz Sass (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Win	✗	0.75	2.00

Artur Wysocki

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Franciszek Sapikowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marek Małecki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.27
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Maciej Szawica

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcin Pelzner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Przemysław Duda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.79	2.29

Piotr Stelmach

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Ratajczyk (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Skruch (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Miłosz Wierzchoń (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Valerii Luchko

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lillianna Student (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Binczyk (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Janik (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.