Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Adam Urban

14th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michał Krzyżyk (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Piotr Zapała (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.24
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.57
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.74

Dominik Kuszneruk

36th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Pacholski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Michalak (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Marcin Bugara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Franciszek Sapikowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dawid Dominiak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.64

Bartosz Dominiak

13th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dawid Dominiak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mikołaj Łysko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.59

Michal Michalowski

33rd • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Krystian Skrzyszewski (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Maciej Michalak (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Piotr Zapała (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Kamil "Kaka" Żerek

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Artur Wysocki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bartłomiej Wieszok (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bartosz Binczyk (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Maciej Chmielewski

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafał Szymaszek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrycjusz Janas (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

kuba tambor

dropped • 2-1-0

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jagreen Lern (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rafał Kogut (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Maciej Pacholski

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dominik Kuszneruk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pawel Kutesko (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Krzysztof Rybczyński (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.24
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Tomasz Stanislawski

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bartłomiej Wieszok (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eliza Grabarczyk (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.