National Championship 2025 - Poland - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniyar Saduakassov

2nd • 8-1-0

67%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

6.9

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Artur Dziadosz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Krzysztof Rybczyński (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Antoni Maślanka (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.08
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.04
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.87
R13	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.41
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.96
R15	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Michał Biernacki

dropped • 4-0-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wojciech Plewka (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paweł Sosnowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.46
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.46
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50

Adam Skruch

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marek Małecki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Piotr Stelmach (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Igor Wesołowski

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wiktor Woźniak (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Artur Dziadosz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.34
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Wojciech Ruciński

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mikołaj Łysko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcin Chorzepa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Patrycjusz Janas

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Szary (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Janik (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.03
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.