Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Maciej Michalak

16th • 3-3-0

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marcin Chorzepa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dominik Piatkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dominik Kuszneruk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michal Michalowski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lillianna Student (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lukasz Ziemba (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.39
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.19

Krzysztof Rybczyński

32nd • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kamil Grodecki (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Pacholski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mikołaj Fabrowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Franciszek Sapikowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jakub Ratajczyk

dropped • 3-0-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Piotr Stelmach (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Marek Małecki

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Skruch (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maciej Laskowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Artur Wysocki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Rafał Szymaszek

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.70

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.