National Championship 2025 - Poland - Kassai of the Golden Sand (CC)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Piotr Zapała

26th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

4.6

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Szura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 90:10

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Przemysław Duda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michal Michalowski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adam Urban (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.05
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.88
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.07
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.56
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Mateusz Sass

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcin Pelzner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Laskowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.41
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Paweł Kręcki

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dominik Piatkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michał Zalejski (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wojciech Hudziak (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Maciej Janik

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wojciech Hudziak (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrycjusz Janas (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Valerii Luchko (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.