Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Przemysław Duda

39th • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michał Zalejski (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michał Krzyżyk (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Piotr Zapała (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Marcin Bugara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Michał Zalejski

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Przemysław Duda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.33

Patryk Wasielewski

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Szymon Piątek (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31

Marcin Pelzner

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wojciech Plewka (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.22
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.