National Championship 2025 - Poland - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Robert Szary

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrycjusz Janas (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Grzegorz Pijas (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Maciej Kawończyk

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Łukasz Kolibaj (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Zapała (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.20
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Michał Billewicz

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Miłosz Wierzchoń (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.36
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.