National Championship 2025 - Poland - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jan "j4" Wojtecki

3rd • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

5.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.17
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.00
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.08
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.77
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Rafał Kogut

28th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Krystian Skrzyszewski (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs kuba tambor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Szura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Antoni Maślanka (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.12
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.65

Pawel Kutesko

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maciej Pacholski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Szymon Piątek (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Miłosz Wierzchoń

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michał Billewicz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Łukasz Gryziewicz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Stelmach (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.