Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jan "j4" Wojtecki

3rd • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

5.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.19
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.28
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.94
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.29
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.42
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Rafał Kogut

28th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Krystian Skrzyszewski (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs kuba tambor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Szura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Antoni Maślanka (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	2.10

Pawel Kutesko

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maciej Pacholski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Szymon Piątek (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Miłosz Wierzchoń

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michał Billewicz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Łukasz Gryziewicz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Stelmach (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.