Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stefan Dyjak

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jan "j4" Wojtecki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michał Krzyżyk (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31

Artur Dziadosz

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Igor Wesołowski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Franciszek Sapikowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31

Marcin Glowacki

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcin Bugara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.