Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025 - Poland
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
3.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Łukasz Gryziewicz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lukasz Ziemba (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
5th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Antoni Maślanka (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Lillianna Student (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
Round 12: Loss vs Jan "j4" Wojtecki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
15th • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eliza Grabarczyk (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robert Szura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs kuba tambor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Paweł Sosnowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Mikołaj Fabrowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
23rd • 2-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Pawel Kosminski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Rafał Kogut (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-0-0
100%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dominik Kuszneruk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bartłomiej Wieszok (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tomasz Buda (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 66:34
Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Sosnowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dawid Dominiak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tomasz Stanislawski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Antoni Maślanka (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jakub Łoboda (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jan "j4" Wojtecki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jagreen Lern (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hubert Pszczółkowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Mikołaj Fabrowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Valerii Luchko (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Damian Rusin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eliza Grabarczyk (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 66:34
Round 3: Loss vs Mikołaj Fabrowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs kuba tambor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Piełudź (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wojciech Ruciński (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.