Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Grzegorz Marcisz

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Łukasz Gryziewicz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lukasz Ziemba (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.03
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.50
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Tomasz Żelazko

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antoni Maślanka (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lillianna Student (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jan "j4" Wojtecki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.50
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.94
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.41
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R13	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Loay Achmasiewicz

15th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eliza Grabarczyk (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Szura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs kuba tambor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Paweł Sosnowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Mikołaj Fabrowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.03
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.09
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.31

Antoni Maślanka

23rd • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pawel Kosminski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Rafał Kogut (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.13
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Jakub Tepper

dropped • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dominik Kuszneruk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bartłomiej Wieszok (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bartosz Dobrowolski

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tomasz Buda (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Sosnowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dawid Dominiak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.06
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.56

Bartłomiej Wieszok

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tomasz Stanislawski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pawel Kosminski

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antoni Maślanka (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakub Łoboda (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.56

Sebastian Piełudź

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jan "j4" Wojtecki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jagreen Lern (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hubert Pszczółkowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Bartosz Binczyk

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mikołaj Fabrowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Valerii Luchko (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.37
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Kamil Zabłocki senior

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Damian Rusin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eliza Grabarczyk (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mikołaj Fabrowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.11
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Jagreen Lern

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs kuba tambor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Piełudź (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Mikołaj Łysko

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wojciech Ruciński (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.