Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at National Championship 2025

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eliza Grabarczyk

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

0.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 11:89

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kamil Zabłocki senior (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 11:89

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tomasz Stanislawski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 11:89

Prism, Awakener of Sol

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Krystian Skrzyszewski (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.