Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at National Championship 2025 - Poland
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
34th • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Makowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tomasz Stanislawski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Igor Wesołowski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Dawid Dominiak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Paweł Sosnowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.