Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Minneapolis

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

41 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Evan Bridges

13th • 10-3-0

69%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colin Swisher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kristopher Kraemer (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stephen Cookus (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Baker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yongji Yang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Menion Croll (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Austin Henson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lucas Baughn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Hyunjun Jeon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jude Cornett (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.08
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.10
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.12
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.58
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.48
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.97
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.32
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Ryan Rich

19th • 10-3-0

69%

Meta

+3.8

Perf

5.8

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Gosse (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dexter Canright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Darren Knopes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gary Gold (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Duane Flier (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Pheano Black (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs jordan johnson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.08
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.48
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.48
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.29
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.28
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.82
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

John Cooper

28th • 9-4-0

62%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

6.9

Surp

4.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Hollermann (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Ramsay (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs gabriel ebady (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Austin Henson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Darick Oswalt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

62% (8/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.10
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.14
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.24
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.28
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.58
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.67
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.23
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.89
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.40
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Clover Ausdemore

44th • 8-5-0

62%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

6.5

Surp

4.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Clifford (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Barrett (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 90:10

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Olson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Ehalt (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs jordan johnson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Darick Oswalt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

62% (8/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.02
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.35
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.32
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.29
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.82
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.05
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.81
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Chad Bortz

52nd • 8-5-0

62%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joel Seagren (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Clifford (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Menion Croll (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rogue Theory (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Koosha Jahani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Adam Jessell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Phil Kinney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

62% (8/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.08
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.16
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.27
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.48
R7	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.29
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R9	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Austin Henson

53rd • 8-5-0

77%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

6.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Reitenbach (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Menion Croll (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kristopher Kraemer (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wesley Dong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs gabriel ebady (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Cooper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Unknown)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Carlos Carrero (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.15
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.27
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.58
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.42
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.70
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R12	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.09
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Derek Anderson

60th • 8-5-0

38%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

6.8

Surp

4.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steven Caraher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Henry Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Salvatore Calderone (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Clinton Jeffers (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Phil Kinney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs quintin ludtke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Chad Bortz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jason Feng (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

38% (5/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.12
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.23
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.47
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.45
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.55
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.39
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.07
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Adam Jessell

64th • 7-6-0

69%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

6.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Chew (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Gray (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Clifford (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Maul (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew W (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Chad Bortz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Carter Barton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.36
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.14
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.41
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.93
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Phillip Spader

65th • 7-6-0

69%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zach Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Barta (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexis Cotto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Richard Yanke (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alan Jernigan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Grant Juaire (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Phil Kinney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.08
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.20
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.41
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.51
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.65
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.05
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Magri

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dallin Wallenda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Ford (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Phil Kinney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Connor Bryant (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs jordan johnson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.33
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Jesse Kennon

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lloyd McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jared Smith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Diana Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nicolas Seegraves (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathan Stevenson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.19
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.57
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.14
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.78
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Matt Pollitt

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Long Lam (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Long Dao (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jude Cornett (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.57
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.95
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Rihanna LaGrou

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Williams (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Jernigan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Beni (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Karl (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs benjamin slenczka (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Eric Wilson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.24
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Wesley Burns

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Gardner (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Theo Koefod (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Riley Thomas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chris Busby (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Austin Ford (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.19
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.66
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Darren Knopes

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Omar Reyhan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Butzke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bradley Pasbjerg (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gabriel Torres (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nicholas Mejac

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Keven Meyer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lloyd McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremey Campshure (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

100:0

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brecken Gruenzner (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 100:0

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Little (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Harrison Russell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Dexter Canright

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs benjamin slenczka (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David M. Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Dubson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sjohn Chambers (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeremey Campshure (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.08
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Benjamin Williams

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jay Maillet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Stone (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs gabriel stallings (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marcus Brown (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.01
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.87
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Chase Reiser

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rodel Rodea (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs JP Coleman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Day (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Addison Mayberry (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.31
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Gary Gold

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Annie Adler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alexis Cotto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.13
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Matthew Meehan

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Donaldson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josh Lueschen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Cardin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.06
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.26
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Randall Sims

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Moore (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Carr (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ashelin Gadal (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.31
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Steve Halloran

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Odenheimer (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Unknown)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.36
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Alexander Heger

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Wyce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Stomper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richard Yanke (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Lester (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andy Julkowski

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Towne (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brett Merold (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Jernigan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Pollitz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.17
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Kaileb Shipman

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Donaldson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremey Campshure (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Shawn Reed

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Siems (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brycen Vasquez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chuck Hutchins (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Timothy Hernandez (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.45
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jordan Blankenship

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Phi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Ross (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.42
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.23
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Brett Merold

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Lougheed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andy Julkowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Sexton (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Seth Penner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Justin Kinison

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Boudreaux (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dayna Hagewood (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hazel Hensley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Nik Katebian

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs chris schmidt (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Busby (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Smith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Sean Gray

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trevor Baker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Thomas Stomper

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Hunt (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Riley Thomas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joel Seagren (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Michael Barnes

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Drolshagen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Wilson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Nicholas Whitley

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mychael Gochee (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hollis Eacho (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Herzog (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Trevor Baker

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Keith Swingle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Gray (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Walter Snowden

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Omar Reyhan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Unknown)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs benjamin slenczka (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

James Cæruleus Silver

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gary Gold (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Cardin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Beck (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Wesley Hobson

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Moe (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Nathan Burns

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Presley (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Lougheed

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brett Merold (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.