Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Minneapolis

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

58 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

William Pistel

1st • 15-1-0

100%

Meta

+6.9

Perf

7.8

Surp

7.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aria How (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Streif (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Peyton Sayasith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nghia Tran (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Oliver Phi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Nghia Tran (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (16/16 favorable matchups)

Performance

+6.9 Wins (8.1 expected, 15 actual)

Surprise

7.8 total deviation

Difficulty

7.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.06
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.19
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.29
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.73
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.54
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.86
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R15	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.87
R16	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Brodie Spurlock

10th • 10-3-0

77%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

6.4

Surp

5.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Bryant (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Diana Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Dirksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Abigail Welday (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dexter Canright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Berg (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Keven Meyer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Carlos Carrero (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.18
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.30
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.45
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.60
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.65
R9	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.61
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.72
R11	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.74
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Lucas Oswald

15th • 10-3-0

69%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

6.7

Surp

4.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Grant Juaire (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bradley Pasbjerg (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs William Pistel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jonathan Stevenson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.10
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.16
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.28
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.38
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.51
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.60
R9	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.49
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.82
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

George Dilling

49th • 8-5-0

62%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

6.4

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyruss Sennett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Gray (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Koosha Jahani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Devin McAtee (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bradley Pasbjerg (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hyunjun Jeon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jeff Kloosterman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (8/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.08
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.17
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.27
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.45
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.77
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.75
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Adam Hobbs

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Landon (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hollis Eacho (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Gosse (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Isaac Hollermann (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs isaac Stanley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.93
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Joshua Maul

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs SEAN STELL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Adams (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Hiller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Hernandez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Zachary Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.16
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Matthew Gump

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremey Campshure (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sjohn Chambers (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Van Kampen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dallin Wallenda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evan Ford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Cedric DeRouchie (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Carter Barton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.29
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.93
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Mykel Kramer

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Revera (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Riley Thomas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dean Carr (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gavin Myre (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Will Montz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alexis Cotto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Ravi Sharma

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dakotah Kintigh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyruss Sennett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Wright (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

SEAN STELL

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tanner Nguyen (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Maul (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tucker Gray (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mao Lor (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Ehalt (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Connar Bodoh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Morreale (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Steven Leyva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Will Montz

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Myers (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Louis Solymos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Cardin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Darick Oswalt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Zayne Johnson

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Will Montz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tad Kammeyer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Steven Leyva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.67
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Alexander Goldberger

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Randall Sims (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Virgil Toms (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dallas Siebers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyruss Sennett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nicolas Seegraves (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tanner Propst (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.93
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Maxwell Taylor

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Lawton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Markham (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richard McMahon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Clark (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jared Wyce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shawn Reed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Cole Love (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Scott Weaville

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Rutkowski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rodel Rodea (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andy Julkowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brendan Thomas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jake Torres (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Seman (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Pistel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Bray (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Pheano Black (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Streif (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.83
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Jerome Trujillo

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Landon (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Revera (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cole Love (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Saffouri (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs JP Coleman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Reuben Arteaga (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.66
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Brennen DeBoer

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nik Dinnis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Carl Norman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.84
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Elias Brooks

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Westbrook (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dante Irvine (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Moe (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Morreale (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jeremy Werner

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Baillargeon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dakotah Kintigh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bryce Saffouri (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs John McGovern (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.86
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

adam bidler

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Lawrenson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Lee (Unknown)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kamron Van Hulzen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew W (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.04
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Anthony Herzog

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Ford (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Gosse (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Whitley (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nick Webb (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Ptak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Christopher Dietz

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Long Lam (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andy Portillo (Unknown)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dustin Chambers (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Kruman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Seth Penner

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dirksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brett Merold (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Calvin Cheney (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.93
R6	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Dalton Cameron

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Lougheed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Evan Roberson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Donovan Mitchell

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marvin Dominguez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Dandikar (Unknown)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Evan Ford

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Karl (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John McGovern (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rory Palmer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josh Gardner (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.89
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Bray

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cole Love (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dario Benitez (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.17
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Adam Karl

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Ford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aiden Schoeffler (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Albright (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jared Smith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kenan Ratliff (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rihanna LaGrou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.97
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Brennan Grout

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Nathaniel Lansangan

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dustin Cierpisz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charlotte Roux (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Maynard (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.01
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Alex Truell

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rory Palmer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dario Benitez (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marcus Aviles (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.42
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Arthur Mills

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lundeen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Ramsay (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Wright (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.42
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Connor Bryant

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Molho (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Kirkendall (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim Perlewitz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Magri (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.27
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.79
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Cynthia Boutot

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Theo Koefod (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Lawton (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Olson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jamen Vedova

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joe Ellis (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Seagren (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Wilson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.98
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Mao Lor

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Owen Rasch (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs james Hoenstine (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tanner Sorensen (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adain Hanson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.26
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

JP Coleman

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Devon Kooker (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.28
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Keith Swingle

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Sexton (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Trevor Baker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Baillargeon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Tyson Au

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandar Shi (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Feng (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Addison Mayberry

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gerald Toms (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Devin Simms (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Alex Malave

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tad Kammeyer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David M. Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Roorda (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Ford (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Dustin Cierpisz

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Randall Sims (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Artie Hamelin (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Hobbs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marvin Dominguez

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peyton Sayasith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donovan Mitchell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Devin Simms (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Matthew Boudreaux

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kenn Johnson (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Williams (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Michael Dubson

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Koosha Jahani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Steve Gilland

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Kirkendall (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Kruman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Dejno (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Adam Ramsay

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Logan Petersen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Cooper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Becker

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Amber Pennington (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Koosha Jahani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Paul Douglas

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Hamilton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darick Oswalt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Shaun Benoit

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Ehalt (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Balke (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tad Kammeyer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Bailey Hilten

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Hollermann (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Ren Fisk

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Lester (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Carr (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Drew Peastrel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Tobias Cossairt

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Lawton (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Seitz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Sidney Hunt

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alyssa Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marie Frank (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Tyler Goodridge

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Annie Adler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dubson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lexie Klasing

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.