Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Minneapolis

Dorinthea Ironsong

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Baughn

40th • 9-4-0

54%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

5.7

Surp

4.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Drew Gary (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Matza (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 18:82

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matt Pollitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jason Feng (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Grant Kern (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.10
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.07
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.41
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.39
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.42
R8	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.75
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.35

Theodore Raitzer

61st • 8-4-1

54%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs christian gilbert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 64:36

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alan Valdez (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sean Gray (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Dejno (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Stephen Cookus (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ashelin Gadal (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Phil Kinney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Menion Croll (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Adam Jessell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.10
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.44
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.22
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.03
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.51
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.54
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.77

Chris Weidinger

dropped • 6-5-0

36%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Beni (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob hampson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Yoder (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Elias Brooks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Adam Jessell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs jordan johnson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

36% (4/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.10
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.41
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.28
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.62
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.72
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jason Chan

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Towne (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs christian gilbert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Peter Beck (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Landon (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Karl (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.65
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.32
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.57
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

John Record

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kamron Van Hulzen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kenan Ratliff (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Franklin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Day (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Hunt (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.23
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Isaac Hollermann

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Cooper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bailey Hilten (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Beni (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Richard Yanke (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Richard Simmons (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Hobbs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Riley Thomas

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew W (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Stomper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Burns (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brecken Gruenzner (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Diana Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Andrew Lundeen

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexis Cotto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Drew Gary (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.26
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.09
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Chris Balke

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Van Kampen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darin Voight (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.