Fai, Rising Rebellion at Calling: Minneapolis
Fai, Rising Rebellion
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
4.0
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Charles Poe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 68:32
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Phil Kinney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Feeney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
Round 4: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61
Round 7: Win vs Joshua Hiller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
12%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.2
Surp
5.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Haunert (Unknown)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Karl (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 39:61
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Loberg (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
Round 5: Win vs Aaron Albright (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Round 7: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Khalif Hashim (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Win |
dropped • 2-6-0
12%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charles Feist (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Reuben Arteaga (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 23:77
Round 4: Win vs Marie Frank (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Riley Thomas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 26:74
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Harrison Russell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 68:32
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jonathen Byrd (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Falone (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 68:32
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Hiller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Diana Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 37:63
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Livingstone (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Khalif Hashim (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 6: Loss vs Robbie Valdez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
17%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Torres (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 23:77
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Presley (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67
Round 3: Win vs Tobias Cossairt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Dario Benitez (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marie Frank (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ben Swinford (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
Round 2: Win vs Chris Balke (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Harrison Russell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 68:32
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Cardin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nik Dinnis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.