Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Minneapolis
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
4.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Austin Henry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 64:36
Round 2: Loss vs Stephen Cookus (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Nick Webb (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
Round 6: Win vs Michael Dirksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
Round 8: Win vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Sidney Hunt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zachary Franklin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Clark Jansen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Shawn Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ian Olson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Hyunjun Jeon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Roorda (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Pheano Black (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Presley (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sarah Bisplinghoff (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John McGovern (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Adain Hanson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Lester (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Seitz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Darin Voight (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jasiel Diez (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Eric Wilson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Berg (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Williams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sarah Bisplinghoff (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rory Palmer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 64:36
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Loberg (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 64:36
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mark Hartman (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cole Love (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bradley Jamrozik (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pheano Black (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Logan Reinert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.