Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Minneapolis
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
37th • 9-4-0
62%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
5.3
Surp
3.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brandon Datwyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Magri (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Stephen Cookus (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Theodore Raitzer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Phillip Spader (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Chad Bortz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
62% (8/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R13 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Franklin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs ROBERT DUNN (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Corey Baker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
Round 7: Win vs Dallas Siebers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Morreale (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathan Moe (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Lundeen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Phillip Spader (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gary Gold (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Berg (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
Round 8: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alek Idol (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Timothy Carter (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Albert Irvine (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mao Lor (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs George Ferris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pjhay Manalo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Barnes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justin Salmon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jason Feng (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71
Round 7: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hannah Northrup (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs chris schmidt (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Michael Clark (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Lawton (Unknown)
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Feeney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Hollermann (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Hernandez (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Phil Kinney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eric Towne (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs jordan johnson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.