Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at Calling: Minneapolis

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

24 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carlos Carrero

32nd • 9-4-0

23%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

6.8

Surp

4.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tommy Day (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Truell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steven Leyva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Stevenson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jason Feng (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Peyton Sayasith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Evan Bridges (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Austin Henson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

23% (3/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.10
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.19
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.30
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.39
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.48
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.61
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.77
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.56
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Clinton Jeffers

50th • 8-5-0

38%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

6.5

Surp

4.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gerald Toms (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rogue Theory (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Will Montz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Stew Fraser (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Zachary Adams (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hyunjun Jeon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Koosha Jahani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

38% (5/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.10
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.14
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.17
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.39
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.80
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.45
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.05
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Keven Meyer

dropped • 6-4-0

60%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mychael Gochee (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dallas Siebers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Austin Revera (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jared Smith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.08
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.28
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.88
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.74
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Gabriel Torres

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Seitz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chuck Hutchins (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jasiel Diez (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Darren Knopes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.45
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Joshua Rath

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Balke (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robbie Valdez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Wright (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.50
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.27
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.81
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jonathen Byrd

dropped • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Drew Guillien (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs isaac Stanley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Devon Kooker (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs King Dillard (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Humbert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brecken Gruenzner (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.54
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.37

Reuben Arteaga

dropped • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Lawrenson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brecken Gruenzner (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Corey Baker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Salvatore Calderone (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.14
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.18
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.10
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Benjamin Clifford

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Clover Ausdemore (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Lawton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chad Bortz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Grant Juaire (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.27
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.46
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jeff Stamm

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Lueschen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Spader (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Magri (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Luke Magnuson

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Presley (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Meehan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Hiller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 21:79

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Grant Juaire (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew W (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.20
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

benjamin slenczka

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Mullis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Walter Snowden (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Spescha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brycen Vasquez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kyle Mattinson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rihanna LaGrou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.64
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.06
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Nathan Beni

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Reitenbach (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Hollermann (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Moe (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.67
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Robert Sexton

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Keith Swingle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Menion Croll (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brett Merold (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.22
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brennen DeBoer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Timothy Carter (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Cole Torres

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gavin Myre (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Haunert (Unknown)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Mueller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Parker Sutton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.58
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

David Mink

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenn Johnson (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vince Rothman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Chang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Tucker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.00
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Devin McAtee

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs gabriel stallings (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Mattinson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.74
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Michael Beck

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jake Torres (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.99
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Nathan Dollman

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew W (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.53
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Paul Carr

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pjhay Manalo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 21:79

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ren Fisk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Randall Sims (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.52
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

chris schmidt

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Saffouri (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nik Katebian (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryson Graham (Unknown)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robbie Valdez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Ryan Goldfinger

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Seegraves (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aria How (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Zach Hext

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Long Dao (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Perlewitz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Sean Sullivan

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Yoder (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Erik Dethlefs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.