Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Calling: Minneapolis

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

francisco guerrero

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brecken Gruenzner (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jared Smith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Drew Guillien

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathen Byrd (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Hamilton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Michael Stone

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bradley Pasbjerg (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Williams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Wolverton (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Baillargeon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Justin Baillargeon

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Keith Swingle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Stone (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.