Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Calling: Minneapolis

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

francisco guerrero

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brecken Gruenzner (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jared Smith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.10
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Drew Guillien

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathen Byrd (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Hamilton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.92
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Michael Stone

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bradley Pasbjerg (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Williams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Wolverton (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Baillargeon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Justin Baillargeon

dropped • 0-5-0

40%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Keith Swingle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Stone (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.