Briar, Warden of Thorns
14 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 8-3-0
73%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.5
Diff
80:20
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Philliips (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 80:20
85:15
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Brett Merold (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 85:15
35:65
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 5: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
70:30
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 70:30
R8
R8 LL
Round 8: Win vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
35:65
R9 LL
Round 9: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R10 LL
Round 10: Win vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R11 LL
Round 11: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
43rd • 5-6-0
55%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
4.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Kruman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
70:30
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Kanofsky (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 70:30
65:35
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Baar (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38
Round 5: Win vs Charles Dunn (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Riley Lont (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Jason Chan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R9 LL
Round 9: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
Round 10: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
35:65
R11 LL
Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
55% (6/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.8
Diff
55:45
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Barrett (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Matt Garner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Matt Schubert (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Myers (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Austin Henry (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Jake Smith (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Parker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Charlie Herren (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Mitchell Blowey (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Dean DeWitte (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Riley Lont (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38
Round 7: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.1
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
Round 5: Loss vs Mitchell Blowey (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
65:35
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Alex Cassidy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-1
71%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Wesley Robinson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Kyle Grinnage (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
85:15
R4 LL
Round 4: Draw vs Damien Riggins (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 85:15
35:65
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Colin Ross (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Kennedy (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 85% | Draw |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
35:65
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Butera (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Alexander Tedeschi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Thomas (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Jake Smith (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Cole Donaldson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Wesley Robinson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.4
Diff
55:45
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Rosenberg (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Zack Martin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Wesley Robinson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Logan Reinert (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Justin Doggett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
35:65
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Austin Henson (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Joe DeCaussin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
35:65
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Hayslip (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Win vs Grant Grisham (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
65:35
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Alex Cassidy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Austin Revera (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Julien Bergeron (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.5
Diff
60:40
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Drew Carrick (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Barrett (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Dawn DeLozier (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Sam Rosenberg (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 53:47
Round 6: Win vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
35:65
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Solava (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65
85:15
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 85:15
Round 3: Win vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
55:45
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Heynig (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Sean Gray (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.