Aurora, Shooting Star
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
16th • 8-3-0
82%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
5.0
Surp
4.7
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Jason Goyena-Segarra (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Lizzy Autumn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
65:35
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs jaime bessett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38
Round 7: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
65:35
R8 LL
Round 8: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38
20:80
R9 LL
Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
65:35
R10 LL
Round 10: Win vs Evan Herndon (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R11 LL
Round 11: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
82% (9/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Win |
| R8 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
| R10 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
65:35
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Summer Giles (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
65:35
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38
20:80
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
Round 6: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
30:70
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
20:80
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
30:70
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Alice Abuhadba (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Brandon Datwyler (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Barrett (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
65:35
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Alice Abuhadba (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65
Round 4: Win vs Logan Petersen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
20:80
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
20:80
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Pizaro (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Hayslip (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs John Milner (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
20:80
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Kenneth Shivers (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Austin Redington (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)
Round 4: Win vs Alexander Karlson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Robert Alonso (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Butera (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68
Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
20:80
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Pritchard (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
35:65
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Trevyn June (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Dominick Wolfgang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
0.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Mitchell Blowey (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65
20:80
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
0.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
0% (0/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.