Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
28th • 7-3-1
64%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
4.6
Surp
3.0
Diff
30:70
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Michael Stone (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
70:30
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Roger Bodee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
70:30
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
70:30
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Clements (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
70:30
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
Round 8: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
40:60
R9 LL
Round 9: Draw vs Bryce Henschel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R10 LL
Round 10: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Round 11: Win vs Riley Lont (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
64% (7/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Loss |
| R9 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Draw |
| R10 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 40% | Win |
30th • 7-4-0
73%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
5.2
Surp
3.3
Diff
70:30
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Jacob Clements (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Evan Dyck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
40:60
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
40:60
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
70:30
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Austin Henson (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
70:30
R8 LL
Round 8: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
Round 9: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 10: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 11: Win vs Kyle Grinnage (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Loss |
| R10 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Loss |
| R11 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.2
Diff
10:90
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 8:92
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Thomas (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Riley Lont (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60
85:15
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Austin Scherer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 83:17
40:60
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
70:30
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 10% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.4
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Jason Goyena-Segarra (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
10:90
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 8:92
10:90
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Baar (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 8:92
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Justin Doggett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Vladimir Del Valle (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 6: Loss vs Dylan Myers (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 10% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Bourner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
70:30
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Darin Key (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
40:60
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Scanlon (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
70:30
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Connor Bryant (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32
40:60
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Siuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
43%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
40:60
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Bennett Robinson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
30:70
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Cole Donaldson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Michael Stone (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
10:90
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 8:92
40:60
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Ian Carrico (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 10% | Loss |
| R7 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Siuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 40:60
Round 3: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 5: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
40:60
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Julien Bergeron (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
0.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
0% (0/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.