Pro Tour: Baltimore - Dromai, Ash Artist (CC)

Dromai, Ash Artist

44 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mara Faris

2nd • 8-3-0

82%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.7

Surp

6.1

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jake Warburton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R17 CC

Round 17: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Grace (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.03
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.26
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.34
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.71
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.12
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R15	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.29
R16	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.38
R17	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Juha Saarnilampi

3rd • 7-3-0

70%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

5.8

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tariq Patel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nova Chan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R16 CC

Round 16: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paulo Fernandes (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.54
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.04
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.78
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.47
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.33
R15	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.42
R16	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Ian Zhang

9th • 7-1-0

50%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

12.0

Diff

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Dagan White (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Max Thomas (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eli Brawerman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nik Dinnis (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Thourgood (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

12.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.45
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.68
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.90
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.12

Jamie Faulkner

67th • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

7.3

Diff

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Gui Cohen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jeffrey White (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ryan moran (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Dalton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Quinn Wongkew (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

7.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.42
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.12

Austin Redington

101st • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.8

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Easton Douglas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Fred Bird (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs steve clarke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Trinh (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joel Repta (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rob Catton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.42
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R14	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.39

Aaron Shantz

106th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

7.8

Diff

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Calvin Holt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Trebing (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Igor Wesołowski (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Oechsle (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Kohls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Edward Kim (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eli Brawerman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

7.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.45
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.54
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.12

Jason Watkins

143rd • 5-2-1

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Draw vs Noah Clark (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Fay (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.67
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.98
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ryan Mound

66th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.9

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kaiser Tan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Hand (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Devin Rattenni (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.18
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.30
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.66

Andrew Rudin

75th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.2

Diff

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Drew Bosco (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Victor 🇵🇭 Mercado (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs valentin mackl (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.18
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.69
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.23
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Isaac Jessen

92nd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

4.2

Diff

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Adam Matecki (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Victor 🇵🇭 Mercado (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jake Ausdemore (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.90
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.23
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.34
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Mark Morrison

102nd • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

7.5

Diff

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Christopher D'Agostino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ted Nilsson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Nick Gabler (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Feick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Williamson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

7.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.17
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.24
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.45
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.12

Fuad Omar

103rd • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

6.6

Diff

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Stephan Schwarz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Bonde (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan O'Sullivan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kenni Pedersen (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Raphael Socher (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.45
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.53
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.42
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.12

Christopher D'Agostino

126th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sebastian Feick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Easton Douglas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.22
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.51
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.30
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.54
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Michel Corvino

147th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nik Katebian (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Karl “Spaz” Danninger (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Mound (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matt Kohls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.42
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.32
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Evan Dyck

77th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.2

Diff

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Fred Bird (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Tucker (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Damien Riggins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Linn (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.22
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.90
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.68
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Joseph Kaiser

93rd • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nam Vo (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Kim (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.22
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.24
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Shawn Dhaliwal

98th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.4

Diff

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jeromy Tsai (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Sebastian Feick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Cæruleus Silver (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.67
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.42
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.66

Gui Cohen

115th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jamie Faulkner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Weißling (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bryan Kong (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jasiel Diez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.13
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Patrick Weiss

118th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Fred Bird (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Trebing (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Rancic (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Raven (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.42
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Austin Somers

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Pheano Black (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Calvin Holt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Catton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Garrett Pieratt (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.24
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Noah Clark

dropped • 2-3-1

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Draw vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dave Lin (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Knight (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Philip Parker (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Kern (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.96
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Owen Young

dropped • 2-1-1

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Chris Brummett (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.02
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Draw	✗	0.29	-

Cooper Templeton

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jake Warburton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Damien Riggins

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Garrett Pieratt

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shaheen Soorani (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandan St. Amour (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.89
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.08
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jodey Burney

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carter Barton (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.09
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Natalie Hunt

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Adams (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Nik Dinnis

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Shaffer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Jeremy Langevin

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Leonardo Pessôa (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Koslosky (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Majin Bae (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Trebing (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Draw	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Robbert Valkeneers

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Devin Rattenni (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aidan O'Sullivan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	80%	Draw	✓	0.78	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.62
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Gary White

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Jeff Stamm

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Kevin Brayer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Murta (Unknown)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bun Ar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Martin Hechtberger

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Pham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Philippe Paquin

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandan St. Amour (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Bradshaw (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Ryan Wolohan

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeerod Balangan (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gregory Patellis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Karl “Spaz” Danninger (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Seth Penner

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Hand (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Bradshaw (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs steve clarke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Tuomas Kainulainen

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Linn (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Erick Lofton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Airton dos Santos Junior

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Ektor Angelomatis

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Muus (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Milam (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Nicolas Bouffard

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raphael Socher (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs randy lavoie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Tracy Reeves

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mikael Teittinen (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Santianna (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Haik Voskerchian (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Oliver Phi

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Dillon Toumanguelov

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.