Pro Tour: Baltimore - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ryan Youngquist

136th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

5.9

Diff

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joseph Santianna (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rob Cygul (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jodey Burney (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ted Nilsson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Win	✗	0.80	3.53
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.94

Chris Weidinger

dropped • 2-6-0

12%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sergio Sanz Guerrero (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Greg Mitchell (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 41:59

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs JUSTIN FRYAR (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.29
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R14	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Kyle McKeough

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leila Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Randall Sims (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leonardo Pessôa (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.67
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Aliasgar Dedanwala

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Nils Klaper

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Matecki (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Joshua Lau

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Karl “Spaz” Danninger (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 41:59

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Kenneth Justin

dropped • 0-3-1

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jonas Stoberock (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 41:59

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shaheen Soorani (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Draw	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Michael Thomas

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Kohls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Yang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.