Iyslander, Stormbind at Pro Tour: Baltimore

Iyslander, Stormbind

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Liam Bennett

33rd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raphael Socher (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Simmons (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Rich (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.36
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	1.02
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Kevin Murphy

144th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Drew Peastrel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandan St. Amour (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.07
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.25
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	1.02
R13	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong

131st • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Clark Jansen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs nathan lapham (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Gerdes (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Hannan (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	1.19

Matthew Greenleaf

132nd • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs randy lavoie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Stoney (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Tan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs nathan lapham (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs George Ferris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R13	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.54

Adam Matecki

133rd • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Peter Ward (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Isaac Jessen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Sebastian Linn (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Andrew Trebing (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Perez (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nik Katebian (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.25
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.55

Victor 🇵🇭 Mercado

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.2

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jeromy Tsai (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Isaac Jessen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Janik (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeerod Balangan (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.19
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.29
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

James Adams

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Richards (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Walker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Kim (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.50
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Casey Walker

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Artur Panfiłow (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Arkadiusz "Rasaad" Sioda (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Isaac Rancic

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Majin Bae (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Corey Waugh (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rylie Groff (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Zdeněk Matura

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Viet Pham (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Dyllon Dietz

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Collett (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jordan Brengartner

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Womack (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joe DeCaussin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.36
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Hong (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tom Evans (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Philip Parker

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chad Burden (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Clark (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs BRENT ANDERSON (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Sebastian Spicher

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.