Iyslander, Stormbind at Pro Tour: Baltimore
Iyslander, Stormbind
15 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
33rd • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.0
Diff
Round 11: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 14: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Raphael Socher (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
Round 2: Win vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Charles Simmons (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 76:24
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Rich (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R14 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Loss |
144th • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Drew Peastrel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
100:0
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brandan St. Amour (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 100:0
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 81:19
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 100% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R13 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
131st • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.5
Diff
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Clark Jansen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs nathan lapham (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
65:35
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christian Gerdes (Unknown)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ben Hannan (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R14 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
132nd • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 13: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs randy lavoie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
Round 1: Loss vs Jack Stoney (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mark Tan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 81:19
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs nathan lapham (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs George Ferris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R14 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
133rd • 2-6-0
50%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.1
Diff
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Peter Ward (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Isaac Jessen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
Round 13: Loss vs Sebastian Linn (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 14: Win vs Andrew Trebing (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stephen Perez (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nik Katebian (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Loss |
| R14 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.5
Diff
Round 11: Win vs Jeromy Tsai (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Isaac Jessen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Maciej Janik (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jeerod Balangan (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
Round 3: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-1-0
50%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kyle Richards (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Walker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Austin Kim (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 81:19
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Artur Panfiłow (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Arkadiusz "Rasaad" Sioda (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
Round 2: Win vs Majin Bae (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Corey Waugh (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rylie Groff (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.8
Surp
2.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 4: Win vs Viet Pham (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Collett (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38
Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Caleb Womack (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 4: Loss vs Joe DeCaussin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Hong (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tom Evans (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chad Burden (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Noah Clark (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs BRENT ANDERSON (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 75% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.