Pro Tour: Baltimore - Fai, Rising Rebellion (CC)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sebastian Linn

108th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

7.1

Diff

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Adam Matecki (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Van Sant (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Dyck (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.91
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.52
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.85

Eduardo Melo

109th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.3

Diff

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Walker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Gui Cohen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeric Watson (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Leila Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher D'Agostino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edward Knight (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.11
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.16
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.25

Joe DeCaussin

59th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

7.6

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Calvin Holt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yongji Yang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Collins Mullen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Davide Abis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.78
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.36
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.44
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.85

Wesley Dong

74th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nick Gabler (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Pheano Black (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zach Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Weißling (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Briggs (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.37
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.49
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.99
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Steven Caraher

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Santianna (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dave Lin (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Brummett (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.50
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jacob Milam

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Feick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ektor Angelomatis (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leonardo Pessôa (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Lucas Barding

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Fred Bird (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Corey Waugh (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.50
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Pedro Esaki

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Long (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Young (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Rafaelo "Ruffy" Sarmiento

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Bradshaw (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elijah Calub (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Reeve Chia (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Shaffer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.41
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Shawn Adams

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Weißling (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Yauger (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Spencer Freeman

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erick Lofton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Chang (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Anthony DT Zichella

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Collett (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Joseph Scalco

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Canales (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Knight (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.