FaB-Results

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Pro Tour: Baltimore

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Tyler
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Walker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Dromai, Ash Artist
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
Lexi, Livewire
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Drew Peastrel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 28:72
Uzuri, Switchblade
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
James Chang
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.2
Diff
Briar, Warden of Thorns
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Elly Bird (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Fai, Rising Rebellion
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Freeman (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Briar, Warden of Thorns
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Karl “Spaz” Danninger (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.