Briar, Warden of Thorns at Pro Tour: Baltimore

Briar, Warden of Thorns

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tyler Horspool

34th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.0

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Damien Riggins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dagan White (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Dunn (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nova Chan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.15
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.17
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Edward Kim

52nd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

5.3

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Rob Catton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Yongji Yang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 78:22

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Caronchia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Bridges (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.05
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.13
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.15
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.74

Niklas Bengtsson

137th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

6.1

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nik Katebian (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Rodger (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jodey Burney (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Williams (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.15
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.59
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.72

Matt Kohls

36th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ryan Baker (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Thomas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leila Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.29
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.30
R12	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.79
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Elly Bird

dropped • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

5.1

Diff

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Pheano Black (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Chang (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Cæruleus Silver (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.22
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.69
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Maxwell Mitchell

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs steve clarke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Koslosky (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gui Cohen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.07
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.90
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Karl “Spaz” Danninger

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Wolohan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Chang (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.59
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Corey Waugh

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Adams (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 71:29

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Rancic (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Barding (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.82
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.80

Austin Kim

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nik Dinnis (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Ian Smith

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chad Bortz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Yang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesus Montijo

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre-Olivier Vallerand Beaudry (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Erick Lofton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony DT Zichella (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.80

Nathan Crawford

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Unknown)

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Philip van Donselaar

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zach Reinschreiber (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joe DeCaussin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs JP Coleman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Blake Godenzi

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nik Katebian (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Anthony Bugoci (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.78
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alexandre Lefebvre

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nam Vo (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.66
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Higashi

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Jessen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Womack (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.57

GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joel Repta (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Benton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mark Tan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kevin Canales

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Scalco (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Trebing (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stephen Perez (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Mark Tan

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Igor Wesołowski (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs steve clarke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Milam

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Wyatt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Long (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.