Pro Tour: Baltimore - Rhinar, Reckless Rampage (CC)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nathan Dollman

111th • 7-1-0

38%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

7.1

Diff

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Noah Clark (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Julian (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Floris van Asch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.18
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.51
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.57
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.11
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.21
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.84
R14	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.65

Ethan Van Sant

35th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jeffrey White (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Linn (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Matecki (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.57
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.42
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.54
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Drew Bosco

130th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs valentin mackl (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Adam Filipchuk (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Michael Walker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Scalco (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carl Boyle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Biing Chyn "Benson" Lai (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.41
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.03
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R14	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.65

randy lavoie

142nd • 2-6-0

12%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Leila Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs James Kandziolka (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Kehe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicolas Bouffard (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.66
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Chandler To

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Edward Kim (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Kehe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rylie Groff (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.03
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Peter Hong

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pierre-Olivier Vallerand Beaudry (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Garner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.57
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Jonathan (chugs) Moore

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elijah Calub (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Williams (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew W (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Elrod (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Paul LE GOUEZ

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Calvin Holt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Leila Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Andrew Yauger

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Myers (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Dennis Yip

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.