Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Pro Tour: Baltimore

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jake Warburton

5th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.9

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Davide Abis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.44
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.25
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.48
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.59
R15	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Nova Chan

19th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drew Bosco (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roger Bodee (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.51
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.41
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.79

Rob Catton

39th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.3

Diff

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sean Yang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Edward Kim (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Craig Pollack (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Gump (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Redington (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.55
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.87
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.46
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Jack Raven

56th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.0

Diff

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.17
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.34
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.79

Andrew Padlesky

138th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.7

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Isaac Jessen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sebastian Feick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Joshua Koslosky (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Michael Bonde (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.38
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.79

Oscar Ojeda Gomez

134th • 3-5-0

25%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Randall Sims (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.56

Bryce Morgan

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs James Kandziolka (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gary White (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elliot Bicker (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Viet Pham (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Smith (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Floris van Asch

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Pham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Muus (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.50
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Charles Simmons

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dillon Toumanguelov (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Todd Woodworth (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elijah Calub (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Daniel Correas

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

James Thourgood

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cody Williams (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Malana (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Luke Magnuson

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Murphy (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher D'Agostino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Walker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Anthony Chiechi

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Donovan van Beek (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Draw	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Christopher Dietz

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Julian (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Bradshaw (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

John Zapata

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jackie Rousseau (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Owen Young (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Elrod (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.02
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Levi Rauch

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.10
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Matthew Williamson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Kern (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs BRENT ANDERSON (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeromy Tsai (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

BRENT ANDERSON

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Williamson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Philip Parker (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Pierre-Nicolas Perrin

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nik Katebian (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Daniele Frattarelli

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesus Garcia Gomez-Valades (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.