Pro Tour: Baltimore - Kano, Dracai of Aether (CC)

Kano, Dracai of Aether

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Christopher Iaali

58th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

6.1

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Anthony Pham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Kenni Pedersen (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Lemire (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Van Sant (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.97
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R14	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.66

Michael Caronchia

46th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Clark Jansen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nghia Tran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Perez (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Kim (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Long Dao (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.49
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.73
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.79
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.14
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Alexander Vore

97th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Craig Krempels (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ethan Oechsle (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Stephan Schwarz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Bouffard (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chad Burden (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.16
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.42
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.92

Anthony Pham

99th • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Joseph Santianna (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs James Kandziolka (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Christopher D'Agostino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Floris van Asch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Hechtberger (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.79
R13	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.29

Zachary Adams

117th • 2-6-0

25%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Dalton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jasiel Diez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Corey Waugh (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Haik Voskerchian (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.97
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Aidan O'Sullivan

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fuad Omar (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Lin (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Adrian Malana

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Thourgood (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alexander Hempelmann

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aidan O'Sullivan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Evans (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Todd Woodworth (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.78
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

George Ferris

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Freddy Friedrich (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Craig Pollack (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.