Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 8-1-0
56%
Meta
+3.9
Perf
4.6
Surp
6.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ian Schulte (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Win vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Connie Barnett (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Emily Froese (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Lemire (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
Round 10: Win vs Devon Drury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
6.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Win |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
24th • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Allan (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Dang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Emily Froese (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
34th • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.5
Surp
4.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Philippe Thai (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Raine Karan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Avery Myles (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69
Round 10: Win vs Jessie Naamani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
48th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Dang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
Round 2: Win vs Robert Alessi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ethan Lee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jason Thai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Avery Myles (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
43rd • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kris Mayor (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Coady Blanchard (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Mitchell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Leveiller (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Cass Emerson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs May Atlas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
49th • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sunny Yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Warren (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 13:87
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Travis Woodward (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs randy lavoie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
56th • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Evelyn Hills (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Lee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mat Himmelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Yeo (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Millie Marcotte (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59
Round 9: Loss vs Susan Winther (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Courtney MacIsaac (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Constantineau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Thomas Zimmer (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Tyler Winther (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Tanas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kris Mayor (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Devon Drury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Susan Winther (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hugo Bry (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-1
75%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Travis Woodward (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Lourenco (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Matthew Siuda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Draw |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Avery Myles (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.