Arakni, Marionette
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Dang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Trinh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Kevin Constantineau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
17th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs William Yetman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Warren (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Andrew Magri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
85:15
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Fabrice Hénault (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 85% | Win |
15th • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dien Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Winther (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Raine Karan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cayne Wilbur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Gabriel Harvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
45th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Devon Wong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Siuda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alexander Hembroff (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Steele (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Avery Myles (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jason Thai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
31st • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emily Froese (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Niko Bonnay (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Devon Wong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs William Yetman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ben Quantrell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Round 9: Loss vs David Trinh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Andrew Magri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Julien Bergeron (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Liam Harrop (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Hembroff (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Loss vs Penny Schankula (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Lerer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.