National Championship 2026 - Canada - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Maxim Villeneuve

28th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

4.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dalia Morin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Thai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rylie Miller (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michel Corvino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Metallo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Victor Mercado (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.87
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.64
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Evelyn Hills

29th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fabrice Hénault (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Harvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Hembroff (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Beck (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jason Thai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ethan Kennedy (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.40
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.44
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.64
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Devon Wong

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cass Emerson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Tanas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dien Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.02
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.