Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026

Fai, Rising Rebellion

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ethan Kennedy

13th • 5-2-0

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Avery Myles (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Victor Mercado (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Beck (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jean-Philippe Legacy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Evelyn Hills (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.21
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.24
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.96

Millie Marcotte

38th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Zavits (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66

95:5

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicolas Bouffard (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Patrick Steele (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Travis Woodward (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.06
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.88
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.39
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.28

Emily muise

40th • 5-2-0

14%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robert Alessi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cayne Wilbur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Quantrell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Winther (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.78
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.56
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Connie Barnett

22nd • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Winther (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michel Corvino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Gabriel Harvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs David Trinh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.24
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Thomas Zimmer

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mat Himmelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Levstein (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.55
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Kris Mayor

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emily Froese (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Coady Blanchard (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Alexander Hembroff

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Parthav Patel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cass Emerson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evelyn Hills (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Dalia Morin

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maxim Villeneuve (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gavin Furlong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Brannen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Michael Clark

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jessie Naamani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Robson (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.