National Championship 2026 - Canada - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nauris Rozenfelds

19th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Leveiller (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Titizian (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Greyson Hann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Derek Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Maxim Villeneuve (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.64
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.70
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.07

Robert Alessi

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emily muise (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Harrop (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

95:5

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sade Kyle (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 93:7

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Zimmer (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.06
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.62
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Eli Teed

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Millie Marcotte (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jean-François Dufour (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Beck (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.41
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Niko Bonnay

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Tanas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs augustine shim (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.