Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at National Championship 2026 - Canada
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
3.3
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Trinh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Greyson Hann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Niko Bonnay (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Win vs Susan Winther (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 10:90, underdog victory
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Eric Gaudreault (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 10% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.