Katsu, the Wanderer at National Championship 2026 - Canada

Katsu, the Wanderer

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

21st • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.2

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

5:95

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 4:96

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Brannen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Kassai of the Golden Sand

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Allan (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Dash I/O

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jakob Allan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.32
R9	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.02
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.61

Mariusz Korlacki

60th • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Constantineau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Zyggy Starlight

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Courtney MacIsaac (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 47:53

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Harrop (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

5:95

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Lerer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 4:96

Valda, Seismic Impact

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Susan Winther (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cody Beaver (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs randy lavoie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Titizian (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shahan Ahmed (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.87
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.