Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Max Villarreal

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rene Castillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Braulio Mora (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Manuel Espinosa Méndez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Ortiz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jesus Roman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.69
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez

20th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arnoldo Sandoval (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jose Carlos Uribe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Liz Suastes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.82
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Jonathan Sanchez

37th • 2-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julio Heredia (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Marlon Villarreal (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Jorge Octavio Mora Sánchez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luis Canche (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ernesto Manzur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Marco Antonio Jiménez García

51st • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ernesto Manzur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesus Roman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vigneo Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bruno Romero (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Oscar Rodríguez (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.03
R9	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Jose Alejandro Zavala Rodriguez

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eduardo Castillo Trujillo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jose de Jesus Romero Valdez (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Braulio Mora (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs OMAR MATA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.