National Championship 2026 - Mexico - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tulio Marquez

13th • 3-2-1

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesus Roman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Diego de Alba Montes (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Angel Padilla (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs KI JO HAN KIM (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Braulio Mora (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.40

Genaro Ramos

30th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oscar Rodríguez (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arnulfo Gonzalez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brayan Izquierdo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 22:78

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Julio Alberto Sánchez Torres (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.71
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.51

Rene Castillo

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arnoldo Sandoval (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Natanael Eguren

dropped • 0-3-1

25%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roger Alan Luna Fernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noe Perez (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Tomas Espejel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Draw	✗	0.23	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.